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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Name: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Author: Philip E. Tetlock and Dan M. Gardner

by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan M. Gardner

2015

320 pages

Crown Publishing Group

Non-fiction

Psychology / Decision Making

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Overview

Superforecasting explores how certain individuals, termed 'superforecasters,' consistently make more accurate predictions about complex future events than experts or intelligence agencies. The book delves into the traits, habits, and thinking styles that enable these individuals to outperform others.

Drawing on findings from the Good Judgment Project, a large-scale forecasting tournament, the authors reveal practical techniques for improving judgment and decision-making. The book emphasizes the importance of open-mindedness, probabilistic thinking, and continuous learning.

Beyond theory, Superforecasting provides actionable advice for individuals and organizations seeking to enhance their predictive capabilities. It challenges conventional wisdom about expertise and highlights the value of humility, analytical rigor, and collaborative debate in forecasting.

1
Superforecasters use probabilistic thinking rather than binary predictions.
2
They actively update their beliefs based on new evidence.
3
Open-mindedness and intellectual humility are crucial traits.
4
Breaking problems into smaller parts improves accuracy.
5
Continuous practice and feedback enhance forecasting skills.
6
Collaboration and constructive disagreement lead to better outcomes.
7
Expertise alone does not guarantee forecasting accuracy.

Chapter 1: Introduction: Superforecasting

Introduces the concept of superforecasting and the Good Judgment Project's forecasting tournament.

Chapter 2: The Science of Prediction

Explores the challenges of forecasting and the limitations of expert predictions.

Chapter 3: Superforecasters: Who They Are and How They Think

Profiles superforecasters and examines their cognitive styles and habits.

Chapter 4: How to Become a Superforecaster

Details practical strategies and techniques for improving forecasting skills.

Chapter 5: The Importance of Updating

Highlights the role of revising beliefs and adapting to new information.

Chapter 6: Thinking in Probabilities

Discusses probabilistic reasoning as a key to better predictions.

Chapter 7: Teamwork and Debate

Explores how collaboration and constructive disagreement enhance forecasting.

Chapter 8: Lessons for Organizations

Applies superforecasting principles to improve decision-making in groups and institutions.

Chapter 9: Conclusion: The Future of Forecasting

Reflects on the implications of superforecasting for society and the future.

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Key Takeaways

Adopt a probabilistic approach to predictions instead of yes/no answers.

Regularly revise your forecasts as new information becomes available.

Cultivate intellectual humility to recognize and correct errors.

Decompose complex questions into manageable components.

Engage in active learning and seek feedback to improve judgment.

Encourage diverse perspectives and debate to refine forecasts.

Avoid overreliance on authority or conventional wisdom.

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