Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Superforecasting explores how some individuals consistently make better predictions about future events than experts and intelligence agencies. The book is based on a multi-year research project called the Good Judgment Project, which studied thousands of volunteers making forecasts on global political and economic issues.

Tetlock and Gardner reveal that superforecasters use a combination of analytical thinking, open-mindedness, and probabilistic reasoning. They emphasize continuous learning, updating beliefs with new evidence, and breaking problems into smaller parts.

The book challenges traditional notions of expert knowledge and highlights the importance of humility and intellectual rigor. It offers practical advice on improving decision-making and forecasting skills in uncertain environments.

By blending psychology, statistics, and real-world examples, Superforecasting provides insights into how better predictions can be made, benefiting policymakers, business leaders, and anyone interested in understanding the future.